US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un are expected to meet in May or early June. Photo: AP.
When nuclear historian Alex Wellerstein tried to imagine scenarios for a possible summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, as did many other experts,
The meeting will bring two leaders with two proven unstable personalities together, on one side is President Trump with his impulsive personality and little political experience, on the other side is the leader of North Korea.
Mr. Wellerstein is worried that conflicts will arise when the two leaders enter the meeting because both sides seem to be misunderstanding each other.
Actual conflict
Statements from the two governments show that they are not only aiming for opposite goals but also admitting completely different realities, experts say.
On April 20, North Korea announced that it would stop its nuclear tests and development program on the grounds that it had achieved the necessary technological advances.
But US officials praised North Korea’s suspension of nuclear and missile testing as an important concession.
On the other hand, the North Koreans seem to see their nuclear breakthroughs as the main reason why Mr. Trump agreed to attend the summit, something North Korea has long wanted to prove that they are capable of competing.
But the Americans said it was Mr. Kim who was forced into the meeting by the influence of sanctions and threats of military action.
The announcement from leader Kim Jong-un implies that North Korea is on the road to forcing the world to accept them as they are.
From the US perspective, the upcoming meeting is the result of a series of continuous pressures on North Korea, so Mr. Kim is probably preparing to discuss concessions on the nuclear issue,
However, in the opposite direction, North Koreans have long believed that nuclear weapons are an effective deterrent tool, the key to ensuring their existence.
Missiles in North Korea’s arsenal and the range of each type.
Conflicting expectations
According to commentator Fisher, facing a President Trump who refuses to be bound by international norms or diplomatic principles and a North Korean leader Kim Jong-un with unclear domestic political priorities,
Melissa Hanham, an analyst at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, said that despite promising to stop nuclear and missile testing, North Korea could still completely `break its promise` after achieving its goals in the war.
Mira Rapp-Hooper, an expert on Asian security issues at the Center for a New American Security, commented that with the pressure to return from an important meeting with a breakthrough agreement, President Trump could easily fall into
According to Ms. Rapp-Hooper, Trump’s skepticism about alliances could lead him to decide to reduce the US presence in the region and accept North Korea’s nuclear program in exchange for Pyongyang stopping its program.
`If the conflicting expectations between the two countries cannot be reconciled, discussions will risk collapsing in anger and disagreement,` Mr. Fisher emphasized.
Mr. Narang, a professor at MIT, warned of a large gap in goals, expectations and perceptions that the meeting between North Korea and the US `either brings a lot of opportunities for negotiation, or creates a lot of springboards.`
